Export Constraints Curb Kazakhstan’s Ability to Offset the Global Oil Shortage
Continental Strikes Venezuela Oil Deal with PDVSA Eurasianet is an independent news organization that covers news from and about the South Caucasus and Central Asia, providing on-the-ground reporting and critical perspectives on… Kazakhstan, which has major oil reserves, is not in a position to help offset a looming energy crisis by expanding production, industry analysts say.
With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Russia sanctioned and Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline knocked out of action by Iranian drones, experts are predicting a spike in energy prices.
The Saudi pipeline alone was responsible forsupplyingup to 4 percent, or 4 million tons per day, of global oil needs, mostly to Asian markets.
Kazakhstan cannot be counted on to make up for some of the shortfall.
The Kazakh oil industry is facing a two-pronged challenge: production is falling, and existing export options face a constant threat of disruption.
According to a Kazakhgovernment statement, oil production fell8.4 percentshort of its original target for the first eight months of 2026, standing at 61.7 million tons.
Scheduled maintenance that started in September at the Karachaganak oil and gas field, one of the country’s largest, is one factor that will continue to hinder production capacity, the Kazinform news agencyciteda Kazakh industry expert, Nurlan Zhumagulov, as saying.
The Karachaganak disruption and other factors have prompted the government to cut its annual production forecast to 96 million tons from 100 million tons.
Beyond the production struggles, Kazakhstan is facing growing difficulties getting its oil to market. Roughly 80 percent of exports go through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) route to the Russian port of Novorossiysk.
Terminal facilities in Novorossiysk, and the pipeline itself, have been subjected to repeated Ukrainian drone attacks in recent months.
The most recent drone-caused disruption occurred September 8 with astrikeagainst a CPC oil loading facility.
Kazakh officials face a dearth of alternatives to the CPC.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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