Global Biofuels Output Could Surge 70% Amid Energy Crisis
Saudi Oil Export Costs Surge as Red Sea Risks Mount Alex Kimani is a veteran finance writer, investor, engineer and researcher for Safehaven.com.
Global biofuels production is projected to surge by nearly 70% by 2030 as major producing countries raise their fuel-blending mandates in response to the energy crisis triggered by the Middle East conflict,a studyco-authored by British think tank Chatham House and Forest Stewardship Council has found.
Biofuels like ethanol, which typically originate from food crops or animal feed and are mixed with gasoline or diesel, become more cost-competitive as crude oil and gasoline prices spike.
Several countries, including the U.S., the EU, Brazil, India and Indonesia have adopted or proposed higher biofuel blending mandates since the outbreak of the conflict in late February.
In the U.S., the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)unveiledthe Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) "Set 2" rule for 2026 and 2027 in April, establishing the highest renewable fuel volume mandates in the 20-year history of the program.
The mandate raises biomass-based diesel volume requirements to 5.4 billion gallons for 2026 and 5.7 billion gallons for 2027, up from 3.35 billion gallons in 2025.
EPA estimates that meeting the new requirements will require about6.07 billion gallons of biomass-based diesel in 2026 after accounting for exports and other fuel that does not generate compliance credits.
The EPA separately issued an emergency waiver allowing nationwide sales of E15, gasoline blended with 15% ethanol, through the summer driving season to lower pump prices and increase fuel supply.
Meanwhile, the European Union could soon require its members to increase their use of biofuels.
Under the currentRenewable Energy Directive framework, member states are mandated to achieve a 29% share of renewable energy in transport by 2030.
However, subsequent policy shifts and leaked draft updates to the directive (RED IV) signal that the EU is further adjusting eligible volumes, includingproposing a 30% increasein eligible volumes for crop-based biofuels under a 7% EU-wide cap.
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