Global Fuel Squeeze Triggers U.S. Refiners Stocks Rally
Saudi Arabia Discovers 110 Million Tonnes of Uranium-Bearing Ore What I Cover Tsvetana Paraskova is an energy and commodities journalist who has contributed to Oilprice.com for nearly a decade, covering global energy markets, commodities,… Energy stocks have rallied this year as oil prices soared amid the Middle East conflict.
supermajors ExxonMobil and Chevron have seen their stocks gain about 40% each so far in 2026, but U.S.
refiner stocks have outperformed the majors because the global fuel market is much tighter than crude oil markets.
The share prices of Phillips 66 (PSX:NYSE), Valero Energy (VLO:NYSE), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC:NYSE) have more than doubled this year, as fuel markets are tightening with more than 7 million barrels per day (bpd) of refined product flows offline in the Middle East and Russia.
The wars in Iran and Ukraine have opened a major supply gap that capacity outside the Middle East and Russia cannot fill.
refiner stocks are rallying and outperforming the oil majors by a mile, as product cracks hit record highs and boost refining margins.
The last time refiners saw surging refining margins was in 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the major oil flows shake-up as a result of the Western bans on imports of Russian crude oil and refined products.
This time around, industry and analysts expect the market to take longer to normalize, considering the intensified concerns about supply from the Middle East and Russia’s limited refining capacity, which has been targeted by Ukraine for months now.
“You got global product balances remain extremely tight and some of the lowest levels of inventories in gasoline and diesel that we've seen,” Maryann Mannen, Marathon Petroleum’s chair, president, and CEO, said on the corporation’sQ2 earnings calllast month.Related: Uniper to Sell Gas Pipeline Stake to Meet EU State Aid Conditions Mark Lashier, chief executive officer and chairman of Phillips 66, said on theQ2 earnings callin early August, “when you look at what's going on, it's more of a supply shock than a demand shock.
You've had significant refining capacity off-line and stocks are low.” “And so we see it taking a lot longer for that situation to normalize than what we saw in 2022,” Phillips 66’s top executive added.
Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum, and Valero all reportedconsensus-beating earningsfor the second quarter, and expect high margins through the end of the year, and possibly all through next year, as the market is too low on product inventories while global refining capacity cannot offset the supply issues in the Middle East and Russia.
All averageanalyst ratingsfor Valero, Marathon, and Phillips 66 currently signal ‘moderate buy’ for all three stocks, each of which has jumped by over 100% so far this year.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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