IEA Sees 5.7 Million Bpd Oil Supply Plunge as Gulf Recovery Slips to 2027
IEA Sees 5.7 Million Bpd Oil Supply Plunge as Gulf Recovery Slips to 2027 Satellite monitoring is exposing massive… Julianne Geiger is a veteran energy journalist and market analyst with more than a decade of experience covering the global oil and gas sector.
Her… The IEA just took another 1.4 million barrels per day out of its 2026 global oil supply outlook, and it no longer expects normal Gulf flows to return this year, according to a new agency report released on Friday.
Global oil supply is now expected to fall by 5.7 million bpd in 2026, or roughly 6%, compared with the4.3-million-bpddecline the agency forecast just one month ago.
The delayed recovery of Middle Eastern production has pushed the return of normal Gulf supplies into 2027.
Global oil stocks fell at a rate of 3.1 million bpd in August, leaving inventories at 7.8 billion barrels, their lowest since 2023.
In July, the IEA had put the cumulative inventory loss since the Iran war began at 410 million barrels.
Saudi Arabia accounted for a large chunk of August’s deterioration.
Saudi crude supply plunged 2.3 million bpd during the month to just 6 million bpd, its lowest level in more than three decades, after attacks hit facilities and shipping routes.
OPEC+ production fell 1.8 million bpd to 38.8 million bpd.
The shortage is already destroying demand.
The IEA now expects global oil consumption to fall by 2.5 million bpd this year, compared with the 1.6-million-bpd contraction it forecast in August.
Record fuel prices are forcing consumers to use less, particularly as refinery disruptions tighten diesel and other product markets.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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