Jeff Currie Sees $5 Gasoline Before Midterms
Energy Aspects: Oil Market Has Reached an "Inflection Point" Governor Kathy Hochul wants 5 gigawatts of… Germany’s fragmented electricity grid could… What I Cover My focus spans the global energy landscape and the technologies reshaping it, specifically focusing on oil and gas, renewables, and tech-driven market… Diesel just broke $6 a gallon nationwide for the first time in U.S.
history, and Jeff Currie says $5 gasoline is likely to land before midterms.
The founder and CEO of Real Macro, who spent more than a decade running Goldman Sachs’ commodities research desk, toldBloomberg Televisionon Friday that the odds of average U.S.
gasoline hitting $5 a gallon before the November midterms are “extremely high.” AAA datareleased the same day put the national diesel average at $6.0556, a record that’s up 14 percent in a month and more than 60 percent from a year ago.
Regular gasoline sits near $4.27, according to AAA.
Currie’s case rests on refiners running out of room to maneuver.
Plants can shift production between gasoline and diesel to chase whichever fuel is scarcer, but that flexibility has limits, and Currie argues the market is close to testing them.
He told Bloomberg diesel could climb to $7 to $9 a gallon before the squeeze eases.
“Crude is the signal, and now we think about products,” Currie said.
“They are the noise.” He made a similar case onCNBCon Thursday, tying the fuel squeeze to a longer story about underinvestment in physical supply.
Brent crude’s push above $107 a barrel this week is “harder to dismiss as a temporary shock,” he said, pointing to Chinese refiners restarting units to chase diesel margins that have blown out to $110 a barrel, more than the price of the crude that feeds them.
“That’s a pretty big profit,” Currie said.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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