Oil Price Forecasts Jump as Hormuz Disruption Drags On
Germany Orders SEFE to Add 8 TWh of Gas to Storage Speculative positioning is already extremely… Analysts have sharply raised their 2026 oil price forecasts as hopes fade for a quick normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with a newReuters pollputting Brent crude at an average of $89.05 per barrel this year, up from $85.08 just a month ago.
The September survey of 30 economists and analysts also raised the average forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $83.90 per barrel from $80.20 in the August poll.
Brent forecasts ranged from $77.27 to $97.60, as economists grapple with the guessing game of how sustainable the Gulf oil flow recovery actually is.
Several analysts surveyed by Reuters no longer expect a full restoration of Hormuz traffic in the near term.
HSBC is basing its forecast on only gradual improvements in shipping and what it describes as a “structurally impaired” Hormuz, with liquids flows remaining well below the roughly 19-20 million barrels per day that passed through the waterway before the war.
DBS Bank said it is not assuming the conflict will be resolved within the next three to six months.
Gulf producershave nevertheless managed to restore a large share of their exports.
Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports, including shipments by vessels operating with their location transponders switched off, reached 23.3 million bpd over the past week, roughly matching their 2025 average after exports doubled during September.
The Goldman estimate covers total Gulf exports, not just visible tanker traffic through Hormuz, and includes dark exports.
China remains another source of uncertainty.
Nomisma Energia expects crude imports to strengthen as wartime inventory drawdowns continue to reverse and winter demand approaches.
But FGE NexantECA and Energy Aspects have become more cautious, cutting theirQ4 import forecastsby about 400,000 bpd to 9.2-9.3 million bpd after Brent climbed back above $100, freight costs surged and cheap Iranian and Venezuelan barrels largely disappeared.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
Comments
Post a Comment