Saudi Arabia’s Critical Oil Bypass Comes Under Threat
IEA Sees 5.7 Million Bpd Oil Supply Plunge as Gulf Recovery Slips to 2027 Tom majored in International Business at Amsterdam’s Higher School of Economics and later completed an Executive MBA in Energy Transition at the University of Groningen.… Houthi strikes threaten Saudi oil exports as Brent hits $105 and Middle Eastern crude soars to $120.
Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure have alerted the oil markets to the possibility of seeing even less Middle Eastern supply than before, with potential damage to the East-West pipeline jeopardizing 3-4 million b/d of Saudi crude exports.
Whilst the meeting of Gulf foreign ministers over the weekend has poured some cold water on runaway crude prices, ICE Brent at $105 per barrel (and available Middle Eastern grades such as Murban and Oman at $120 per barrel) is by no means the limit if the status quo gets protracted.
OPEC Cuts 2026 Demand Forecast Again.OPECloweredits 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 b/d, down by 200,000 b/d from a month ago and marking its 5thconsecutive downward revision, in turn boosting its 2027 forecast as the oil group expects a 2.36 million b/d demand recovery.
Houthi Strike Threatens Saudi Arabia’s Hormuz Bypass.Fire and smoke have been seencomingfrom Saudi Arabia’s 7 million b/d East-West oil pipeline after a suspected strike by Houthi militants, with both Sentinel and NASA satellite imagery showing active fires and thermal anomalies in the area.
Australia Softens Gas Reservation Rules.Australia haswatereddown its proposed gas reservation policy that set a fixed 20% rate, allowing regulators to lower the reservation rate for LNG plants from 2028, a move designed to allocate as much as 200 BCf per year of additional supply to LNG exporters.
US Diesel Stocks Head for 23-Year Low.US diesel inventories areprojectedto fall below 100 million barrels for the first time since 2003, while the ElA raised its Q4 2026 diesel price forecast by 14% to $5.55 per gallon, just as current retail prices jumped above the $6 per gallon mark for the first time ever.
South Africa Targets 650,000 b/d Refining Revival.South Africa's Central Energy Fundplansto rebuild the idled Sapref refinery and lift processing capacity to 400,000 b/d, with an eventual target of 650,000 b/d, as the country seeks to reduce fuel imports that now account for 61% of domestic supply.
Europe Gas Hit 44-Month High on Supply Fears.European gas pricessurgedabove €80/MWh for the first time since January 2023 amid concerns that Ukraine’s drone strikes could disrupt LNG output at Russia's Yamal LNG facility, whilst Qatar extended its force majeure ahead of the winter heating season.
Saudi Output Falls to Lowest Since 1990.Saudi Arabia reported its crude productionfallingto 6.24 million b/d in August, down 1.9 million b/d from July and the lowest level since 1990, as renewed Houthi-driven disruptions cut exports by roughly one-third and squeezed the kingdom's export routes Bangladesh Locks in Term LNG.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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