The Next Oil Shock Is Never the Last
Syria Diesel Prices Jump 40% Triggering Widespread Unrest Iran’s proposed anti-infiltration law is… Leon Stille has a background in energy sciences (MSc and BSc) and is pursuing a PhD in energy policy.
He currently runs his own company,… The Houthis have seized the Yemeni Red Sea coast, the port of Mokha and Perim Island, which divides the narrow Bab el-Mandeb Strait into two channels.
The group now occupies positions from which it can monitor or threaten one of the world’s most important shipping routes.
But the Strait of Hormuz on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula is already severely disrupted.
Saudi Arabia consequently relied more heavily on its East–West pipeline to move crude from the Gulf to Red Sea export terminals.
Thetemporary shutdown of the Saudi conduitillustrates fossil-fuel insecurity perfectly.
Hormuz becomes dangerous, so oil is sent across the desert.
Bab el-Mandeb becomes dangerous, so tankers consider the Cape of Good Hope.
Each alternative reduces one risk while adding distance, cost and another piece of infrastructure that must be defended.
The problem is no longer one strait, militia or war.
It is an energy system that requires enormous quantities of combustible material to cross unstable borders and narrow waterways every day.
Energy markets discuss each disruption as an exceptional event.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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