Vostok Oil: One Tanker, Four Trillion Rubles
Energy Aspects: Oil Market Has Reached an "Inflection Point" Every headline number behind Vostok Oil — from the tanker fleet and shipping target to the resource base and flagship well — has failed to survive contact with what Rosneft has actually drilled, built, or shipped.
Four trillion rubles into the project, Rosneft has filled a single tanker.
The Valentin Pikul spent 84 days moored at Bukhta Sever's single loading berth before its cargo was loaded for the run to China along the Northern Sea Route.
Its sister ship, the Akademik Gubkin, is right behind it.
Rosneft's own operating plan calls for at least 40 tankers and more than 10 ice-class support vessels to move Vostok Oil crude at scale; but most of that fleet exists only on paper.
CEO Igor Sechin has repeatedly given Putin numbers that don't appear to add up.
Among other discrepancies, his projection is that the project will ship 30 million tons in the second half of 2027: 164,000 tons a day, the equivalent of two Aframax tankers loading at Bukhta Sever every 24 hours.
Sechin gave Putin this same 30-million-ton figure in November 2020, dated for 2024.
The target has since moved to 2027, at double the promised speed.
Yet, the Northern Sea Route is navigable for a few months a year, under heavy icebreaker escort.
Rosneft cites a resource figure of 7 billion tons for the project, but drilling has not yet confirmed that as reserves.
Payakha and West Irkinskoye carry roughly 1.5 billion tons of C1/C2 crude, appraisal-stage and under-explored… Every headline number behind Vostok Oil — from the tanker fleet and shipping target to the resource base and flagship well — has failed to survive contact with what Rosneft has actually drilled, built, or shipped.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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