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On the basis of its price right now relative to where it was at the same point in its prior four-year market cycles,Bitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC) looks pretty cheap, with a price of $77,155 as of Sept.
1, 38% below its last all-time high near $126,080, which was set in October 2025.
Of course, Bitcoin "cycle theory" isn't an empirically proven law, but it can be a useful framework for understanding the coin's behavior relative to past periods.
If we take that caveat in stride, there's reason to believe decent returns await those who buy it now, so let's examine the case for it being priced at a bargain.
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When the coin's price drops below its production cost, such as during a bear market, the least efficient miners have to capitulate and shut down their rigs to stop operating at a loss, and the network's total computing power, called the hash rate, declines.
If the hash rate declines by too much, it takes longer for each new block to be mined, which triggers an automatic downward adjustment to the protocol's mining difficulty.
Then, when mining becomes a bit easier again, the recently discouraged operators can return, as they're more likely to be profitable with a lower mining difficulty, and more Bitcoin is subsequently produced.
Therefore, one useful way to determine whether the coin is underpriced or overpriced is to look at the average hash rate across different intervals, as a declining hash rate suggests the network will need to self-correct, which is most likely to occur when the coin's price is lowest.
By this metric, Bitcoin began to see major miner capitulation in late November 2025.
Additionally, the hash rate stayed depressed for one of the longest stretches on record, trading below its average production cost.
The hash rate remains about 33% below its September 2025 peak despite starting to edge slightly higher in August, which is strong evidence that the coin's price is still too low for many miners to bother with -- and thus also a good argument for the asset being heavily undervalued.
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| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
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| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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