Alaska LNG Hinges on How Much Asian Buyers Will Pay for Energy Security
Japan’s JERA Creates Oil Storage Firm to Manage National Reserve Sites What I Cover Tsvetana Paraskova is an energy and commodities journalist who has contributed to Oilprice.com for nearly a decade, covering global energy markets, commodities,… The Trump Administration’s pet project Alaska LNG may not be commercially investable as costs per production could be more than double the costs at most U.S.
Gulf Coast LNG export projects, aReuters analysishas found.
This week, the Trump Administration touted a $50-billion investment from South Korea for the proposed Alaska LNG project.
The entire project is estimated to cost between $44 billion and $55 billion in total, according to Glenfarne Group, the majority owner and developer of Alaska LNG.
Administration’s claim of a $50-billion investment, saying no sums have ever been agreed upon and the government of South Korea is now only beginning to review the commercial merits of a potential investment in the project.
These commercial aspects don’t look too good for Alaska LNG, as the project would cost $2.2 billion to $2.7 billion per one million metric tons per annum (mtpa) of capacity, per Reuters estimates based on the planned 20 mtpa capacity for the project costing between $44 billion and $55 billion.
To compare, Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 was built at around $760 million per mtpa, while Gulf Coast projects under development, such as NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG and Woodside Energy’s Louisiana LNG, are near the $1 billion-per-mtpa threshold, two times lower than the Alaska LNG costs.
Alaska LNG is designed to deliver North Slope natural gas to Alaskans and export LNG to U.S.
An800-mile pipelinemust also be built to transport the gas from the production centers in the North Slope to south-central Alaska for exports.
Glenfarne looks to take the FID for the pipeline in 2026, later than a previous target in late 2025, Adam Prestidge, president of Glenfarne Alaska LNG, toldReutersin the first weeks of the Iran war in March.
Alaska LNG’s advantage would be the easy access to Asian markets, which look to diversify away from Strait of Hormuz supply, but Canadian LNG projects could be tough competitors.
The key to making Alaska LNG commercially investable is how much premium Asian LNG importers would be willing to pay for energy security, analysts say.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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