Dated Brent Above $120 Signals a Serious Oil Squeeze
G7 Moves to Release 100 Million Barrels to Counter Diesel Crisis Tom majored in International Business at Amsterdam’s Higher School of Economics and later completed an Executive MBA in Energy Transition at the University of Groningen.… Physical oil markets tighten sharply as Dated Brent surges above $120 despite ICE Brent slipping toward $101.
The European diesel stock release, droned tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and China reinstating its refined product export ban have all played their part in this week’s extremely volatile trading, with ICE Brent edging lower to $101 per barrel.
That said, the physical oil market has been moving in the opposite direction, with Europe’s main physical benchmark Dated Brent (which should technically underpin ICE Brent’s moves) jumping above $120 per barrel.
This suggests the physical market is a lot tighter than news headlines would care to admit.
OPEC+ Expected to Hold November Oil Targets Steady.OPEC+ isexpectedto keep November output targets unchanged at Sunday's meeting, as its core producers still pump 5 million b/d below pre-war levels despite August production rising by 630,000 b/d month-over-month to 25 million b/d.
Europe Moves Toward Massive Diesel Stock Release.EU governments aremullingthe release of 50 million barrels—about 17% of EU emergency diesel inventories—over 20 days after US President Donald Trump threatened to introduce a diesel export ban, although final volumes are yet to be confirmed.
UN Warns Fuel Subsidies Could Exceed $1 Trillion.UNDP warned subsidies couldexceed$1 trillion in 2026 as the US-Iran war, triple-digit oil prices and rising borrowing costs strain budgets, with government fuel relief shielding 130 million people from falling below the $6.85-a-day poverty line.
China Bans Fuel Exports Amidst Golden Week.Beijing hassuspendedmost October refined product export shipments, reinstating its previous export ban, with diesel stocks around 20 million barrels below pre-war levels and gasoline 9 million barrels short of its target, triggering a massive rally in Asian cracks.White House Offers Last Tranche of SPR Release.The US Department of Energyofferedthe last SPR release of Trump’s 172-million-barrel emergency drawdown, offering 40 million barrels sour crude for November-December delivery, taking the countrywide total to 243 million barrels once delivered.
CER Settles Trans Mountain Toll Dispute.Canada's energy regulatorapprovedTrans Mountain's new tolls, effective 1 January 2027, ending an 18-month dispute over TMX's C$34 billion cost overruns, while firm shippers committing at least 75,000 b/d over 20 years receive rates as low as $6.53 per barrel.
Seoul Rejects Trump’s Alaska LNG Pitch.The South Korean government haspushed backagainst Donald Trump’s claim that it committed to invest $54 billion in the Alaska LNG project as part of its $200-billion investment package, stating it will participate only if the project proves commercially viable.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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