Global Energy Import Dependence Set to Peak by 2034, Rystad Says
Offers Another 17 Million SPR Barrels as Fuel Crisis Deepens Rystad Energy is an independent energy consulting services and business intelligence provider offering global databases, strategic advisory and research products for energy companies and suppliers,… Rystad Energy’s fifth edition of its flagship annual report,Global Energy Scenarios (GES) 2026, finds that global reliance on imported energy is projected to peak by 2034 as energy security concerns accelerate the shift towards electrification.
Against the backdrop of two major energy crises in five years, the report highlights how a broader range of rapidly deployable technologies is helping the energy system withstand major disruptions to energy flows.
It explores how energy import dependency could evolve under three possible future scenarios, each reflecting a different pace of change.
Russia’s war in Ukraine and the US-Israeli war with Iran, which has severely affected flows through the Strait of Hormuz, are among the most severe tests of the energy system since the oil crises of the 1970s.
Both had long been considered major risks, but they played out differently than anticipated.
Much of the system’s resilience thus far comes from energy capacity built after the first shock.
In 2021, Russia supplied around 36% of Europe’s gas imports and the US around 6%.
By 2025, Russia was down to around 7.5% while US LNG supplied around 21%.
That infrastructure is now helping buffer the system, although Europe and Asia are competing for the same LNG cargoes, which risks leaving Europe short of winter stocks and Asia short of supply.
For oil, pipelines, crude on water, storage and demand response have done much of the work, most visibly in China.
The two conflicts also overlap in diesel: Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have pushed Moscow to ban diesel exports just as Hormuz has reduced Middle East supply.
With diesel stocks around 14% below their five-year average, US diesel cracks have climbed above a record $100 per barrel, raising costs for trucking, shipping and freight.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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