HORAN Capital Advisors Fall 2026 Quarterly Investor Letter
“There is a good reason why the rearview mirror is smaller than the windshield.†- Ted Lasso Back in the day, before 8-track and cassette tapes, to play music one placed a vinyl record on a turntable and the needle (or stylus) dropped down on the record to play the music.
From time to time the stylus would get stuck and play the song track contained in the groove repeatedly unless one gave the stylus a slight nudge.
At the end of the third quarter, it seems the same stocks are responsible for the Q3 2026 market return as have driven market returns over the past few years, not unlike the stylus being stuck and playing the same part of a song over and over again.
As noted by recent commentary from Citadel Securities: Microsoft (MSFT), NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL) and Meta Platforms (META) alone contributed roughly 300 points to the S&P 500 in Q3, or more than 200% of the index's entire gain.
The rest of the index collectively detracted roughly 150 points.
For every $1 allocated to the S&P 500 Index: The four stocks highlighted above are a part of the so-called Magnificent 7 stocks.
In other words, the Mag 7 continued to drive a large part of the return in the third quarter.
Further, the S&P 500 Index's total return for the third quarter equaled 2.30% and the technology sector alone contributed 2.72 percentage points.
The bottom seven performing sectors detracted -1.86 percentage points for the quarter.
Despite this narrow leadership in the quarter, the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (SPXEW) outperformed the S&P 500 Capitalization Weighted Index (SP50) until the month of September.
The outperformance of the equal-weighted index is indicative of a broadening equity market.
However, in September, the S&P 500 Index was down -0.35% and the equal weight S&P 500 Index was down -4.81% resulting in the SPXEW Index falling behind the cap-weighted S&P 500 Index on a year-to-date basis.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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