Iran Is Losing Some of Its Leverage Over the Strait of Hormuz
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Oil Project RFE/RL journalists report the news in 21 countries where a free press is banned by the government or not fully established.
We provide what many… The flow of crude from the Persian Gulf has recovered to near-prewar levels, but the latest data shows that much of the oil is reaching markets through routes and shipping arrangements that did not exist before the war, raising the question of whether Iran is losing its leverage in the Strait of Hormuz.
At least 16.5 million barrels per day of crudeleft the regionbetween September 1 and 28, matching the prewar average when Iran is excluded, according to commodity analytics firm Kpler.
But while crude levels have risen, the refinery bottleneck that has caused a global spike in diesel prices persists.
European Union figures published on October 1 showed diesel pump prices at record levels.
Prices have also surged in the United States despite the recovery in oil exports.
The route, meanwhile, has changed dramatically.
Before the war, 83 percent of the region's crude crossed the Strait of Hormuz.
In September, 40 percent bypassed the strait, with oil instead moving through pipelines and other routes via Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
About 60 percent, or 9.9 million barrels per day, physically crossed Hormuz.
Kpler said more than 70 percent of the crude that crossed the strait in August -- the most recent month available -- changed tankers offshore in the Gulf of Oman, highlighting how far the current system is from normal commercial shipping.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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