Iranian Ship Attacks Threaten Middle East Oil Exports as Tanker Traffic Slows
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A surge in Iranian drone attacks on commercial ships appears to beweighing on Middle Eastern energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz, with 24 attacks reported so far this month.
Thelatest reportsfrom Wednesday morning indicate that two Emirati container ships were struck and sank in the narrow waterway.
UBS energy expert Henri Patricot told clients on Wednesday that crude and petroleum-product flows exiting the Gulf of Oman dropped to 9.1 million barrels a dayover the past couple of days.
The weekly average slipped to 13.5 million, compared with an early-October peak of 17 million.
Patricot provided more color on deteriorating shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz: More attacks around Hormuz and in Saudi Arabia Attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and in the Gulf of Oman continue to be reported at the highest intensity since the start of the conflict (Figure 24).
Iran is reportedly using a new strategy to target ships, including using spotters in small boats.
The attacks appear to be having a clearer negative impact on traffic via Hormuz in recent days.
Separately, attacks have also continued in Saudi Arabia, with reports that Aramco's HQ was targeted.
Oil flows falling further; LNG holding up at much lower level The latest data point to a more material drop in exports from the Middle East.
UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset) indicate thatcrude and product flows out of the Gulf of Oman dropped to 9.1Mb/d in the past couple of days and have averaged 13.5Mb/d in the past week vs.
a peak of 17Mb/d in early October (Figure 3).
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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