Middle East Oil Exports Stage a Remarkable Comeback
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We provide what many… Exports of crude oil from the Middle East hit their highest level in September since the war with Iran began, reinforcing a trend of increased supplies despite Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, according to analysis of shipping and commodity market data by industry observers.
But while crude levels have risen, the refinery bottleneck that has caused a global spike in diesel prices persists.
European Union figures published on October 1 showed diesel pump prices at record levels.
Prices have also surged in the United States despite the recovery in oil exports.
"More oil is coming out of the Middle East Gulf than many expected that would be possible even just a few months ago," Richard Meade, chief editor of Lloyds List, told an online briefing on October 1.
Lloyds List data shows a steady upward curve of crude tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz since mid-July, following a sharp fall that coincided with the collapse of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict, now in its eighth month.
Investment bank JP Morgan said Middle East crude exports in September were at 98 percent of pre-war levels, describing it as "a remarkable recovery for a region still at war." Commodities analytics firm Kpler reported Saudi oil exports were at average levels for 2025, while maritime intelligence company Windward said Saudi terminals loaded four times more oil than in August -- a big increase but still nearly 40 percent lower than in January.
There appear to be a number of factors behind the revival, including the Saudi East-West oil pipeline, the use of oil shuttles and ship-to-ship oil transfers, and a willingness by some in the industry to accept higher risk.
The Saudi pipeline, which pumps its crude to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, was damaged in an attack by Iran-alignedHouthi militantson September 10.
An uptick in shipments from Yanbu later in the month, however, suggested the pipeline had regained at least some of its lost operational capacity.
The United Arab Emirates has found a similar solution, using its pipeline to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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