Oil Markets Brace for a New Iran Escalation After U.S. Midterms
18.4 TW by 2035: IRENA Raises Renewables Goal as Power Demand Climbs Tom majored in International Business at Amsterdam’s Higher School of Economics and later completed an Executive MBA in Energy Transition at the University of Groningen.… Brent holds near $115 as Iran war tensions and escalating Saudi-Houthi hostilities keep oil markets on edge ahead of U.S.
Hormuz Becomes Even More Dangerous — and More Expensive - October has seen the most acuteescalationin maritime attacks since the US-Iran war started eight months ago, with already more than 30 incidents recorded in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways, up from 14 in September.
- The most recent addition to the list of maritime targets is a crude tanker in Iraq’s exclusive economic zone, signaling that it is not only tankers seeking to surreptitiously transit the Hormuz that get targeted by Iran.
- VLCCs, the largest crude tankers available, account for 28% of all drone and missile attacks in the Persian Gulf, with the 32 impacted ships representing almost 4% of the global VLCC fleet.
- Freight rates from the Gulf remain elevated with a Saudi Arabia-China voyage still costing around $33 per barrel, whilst regional demurrage rates have been rising since mid-August to their current level of $1,000,000/day.
- UKMTO, a provider of maritime security alerts, recentlyadmittedthat it is becoming increasingly more difficult to report on strikes as transiting ships prefer to sail unnoticed and charterers are wary of pushing freight rates even higher.
- US gas producerEQT(NYSE:EQT) hasagreedto buyRange Resources(NYSE:RRC) in a $13 billion all-stock deal to create the largest US gas company, with the combined Appalachian-focused company having a net output of more than 9 bcf/d.
- US energy firmOvintiv(NYSE:OVV) willacquireCanada’s Logan Energy in an all-cash deal valued at $0.9 billion, adding around 20,000 boe/d of production and 266,000 net acres across the Montney shale play.
- UK oil majorBP(NYSE:BP) has started thesecond phaseof exploration in Venezuela’s offshore Loran gas field, using the research and survey vessel Fugro Brasilis to perform final seabed studies.
- US oil giantExxonMobil(NYSE:XOM) reported a commercial discovery with its Rockhead-1 exploration well offshore Guyana, its first drilling success since the 2024 Hatchetfish find with a resource estimate of 500-600 million barrels.
- Italian oil majorENI(BIT:ENI) haslaunchedthe construction of its 3 TCf Cronos project offshore Cyprus, aiming for first gas in the first half of 2028, to be exported via Egypt’s Damietta LNG terminal.Tuesday, October 27, 2026 The oil markets are counting down the days until the November 3 midterm elections in the US, with expectations of impending hostilities rising into next month.
Last-minute efforts to negotiate some form of de-escalation are ongoing, with both Qatar and Pakistan seeking to mediate between the Trump administration and Tehran, temporarily capping the upside for ICE Brent.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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