Russia’s Crude Exports Set to Fall as Diesel Production Rises
Russia’s Crude Exports Set to Fall as Diesel Production Rises Julianne Geiger is a veteran energy journalist and market analyst with more than a decade of experience covering the global oil and gas sector.
Her… Russia's crude exports from its western ports could fall by as much as 200,000 barrels per day in November as refiners increase diesel production under Moscow's new agreement with Washington, according to preliminary loading schedules cited by Reuters on Tuesday.
Two traders expect shipments from Russia's Baltic and Black Sea ports to decline by 100,000 to 200,000 bpd from October.
The estimates include Kazakh crude transported through Russian pipelines.
Russian refineries have increased processing since the October 9 diesel agreement between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, helped by the return of facilities from maintenance.
Moscow has issued new diesel export quotas after restricting shipments earlier this year to address domestic fuel shortages, while Washington has eased sanctions on Russian fuel exports.
The arrangement gives Russia an opportunity to increase diesel sales during a global fuel shortage, although its refineries will need more crude to sustain higher processing rates.
Russian oil production, however, has been declining for months.
OPEC secondary-source estimates put September production at 8.64 million bpd, the lowest since mid-2020 and the tenth consecutive monthly decline.
Moscow also lowered its 2026 production forecast in September to a 17-year low.
Russia's seaborne crude exports were already struggling in October.
Shipments averaged3.59 million bpdin the four weeks through October 18, down 110,000 bpd from the previous period.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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