The Next Major Oil Supply Shock Could Come From Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia and Asia Locked In Dispute Over 2027 Term Oil Deals Tom majored in International Business at Amsterdam’s Higher School of Economics and later completed an Executive MBA in Energy Transition at the University of Groningen.… Houthi strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure threaten production as Brent crude hits $108 and the Brent-WTI spread widens to $5.
- Asian liquefied natural gas prices soared to theirhighestsince December 2022, as repeated attacks on tankers across the Middle East and Europe’s worsening winter outlook pushed JKM above $30 per MMBtu.
- Whilst China’s import giants – China and Japan – have been buying 8-10% less LNG year-on-year, seeking to maximize nuclear and renewable energy generation,Europe’s LNG imports averaged 175,000 tonnes over the past 30 days, up 9.5% compared to the 5-year seasonal average.
- The first Houthi attack on LNG shipping has added to the gas markets’ war risk premium, with UKMTO reporting strikes on a laden vessel that sought to transit the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb - The Qatari-owned al Kharsaah appears to be the only LNG carrier that was near Yemen’s coast over the weekend, making a rare journey through the Red Sea todeliverQatari LNG to Poland.
- Europe’s soaringTTF benchmarkis paving the way for global LNG price increases, as the Old Continent’s inventory builds have effectively stopped, with EU-wide stocks capped below 75% of storage capacity.
- Qatari national gas companyQatarEnergyhaswithdrawnits offer to sell up to 10 older steam turbine LNG carriers, seeking to ramp up transits of Hormuz instead, wary of using newer ships for the dangerous route.
- US oil giantChevron(NYSE:CVX)signeda deal with the Egyptian government, detailing financial and commercial terms for Cyprus’ Aphrodite field, linking the offshore project to Egypt’s grid under a 15-year supply deal.
- Norway’s state oil giantEquinor(NYSE:EQNR) has reported a natural gas and condensate discovery in the Norwegian Sea, with the Lakrisprospectholding 3-4 million boe and opening up the PL 1002 license block.
- Italian oil majorENI(BIT:ENI) isfinalizingthe launch of its Bouri gas utilization project, boosting the gas recovery from its offshore Bouri field in Libya by 0.7 bcm per year, all supplied to the domestic market.
- Kurdistan-focused upstream firmGulf Keystone Petroleum(LON:GKP)agreedto merge with Norway’s ShaMaran Petroleum (OSL:SNM) in a $601 million all-share deal, creating the largest independent producer in northern Iraq.Tuesday, October 20, 2026 The Saudi-Houthi conflict has been shaping the main supply narrative of this week, with Yemen’s militias extending their strikes beyond infrastructure sites to the Shaybah oilfield, raising risks that Saudi Arabia would be forced to shut in some production across the country.
The expiry of the November WTI contract saw a much-awaited narrowing of global crude spreads, with ICE Brent trending $5 per barrel above the US benchmark, at $108 per barrel.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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