Trump Puts Iran Strikes on Hold as Hurricane Threatens Oil Supply
Canada’s New Oil Pipeline Challenged by Cold Lake First Nations Tom majored in International Business at Amsterdam’s Higher School of Economics and later completed an Executive MBA in Energy Transition at the University of Groningen.… Oil retreats from $110 as Trump rules out Iran strikes before the midterms, but tanker attacks and a Gulf hurricane threaten fresh volatility.
Donald Trump seems to be firefighting the Middle Eastern blaze, vowing not to attack Iran before the mid-term elections just as oil prices were nearing the $110 per barrel mark amidst a deteriorating security situation in Saudi Arabia and Iran hitting at least one transiting tanker in the Hormuz every day for the past three weeks.
Whilst news of ‘productive discussions’ have lowered ICE Brent to $105 per barrel, all eyes will be on Hurricane Isaias this weekend, with the oil markets seeking to gauge potential damages.
Trump Rules Out Iran Strikes Before Midterms.US President Donald Trump hasruledout attacks on Iran before the midterm elections on November 3 amid ‘productive’ negotiations, temporarily reducing escalation risks around Hormuz just as Iran keeps on striking transiting tankers in the Hormuz.
Iran Draws a Firm Nuclear Red Line.Iran’s atomic energy chief Mohammad Eslami said Tehran willneitherabandon uranium enrichment nor surrender its existing stockpile, dismissing renewed US threats and preserving the key obstacle to negotiations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Isaias Shuts Most US Gulf Oil Output.US offshore drillers havehaltedtwo-thirds of offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico – around 1.3 million b/d—as well as 57% of gas output, with potential supply losses triggered by Hurricane Isaias reaching 9 million barrels, concurrently to lower refinery runs.
Europe Faces a Winter Gas Storage Squeeze.Europe’s Association of Transmission System Operators (ENTSOG)warnedthat even with record LNG imports, EU inventories are projected to fall from 73% now to 29% by end-March, while an extremely cold winter could slash stocks below the 10% strategic floor.
China Restarts Fuel Exports After One-Week Pause.Returning from a week-long Golden Week holiday, Chinese authorities haveapprovedaround 3.7 million tonnes (29 million barrels) of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel shipments for October, below the 1.0-1.1 million b/d export flow seen in August-September.
Qatar’s Pearl GTL Partially Returns After Drone Damage.UK-based energy giant Shell (LON:SHEL) haspartiallyrestarted the 140,000 boe/d Pearl gas-to-liquids (GTL) facility in Qatar after a six-month halt, allowing QatarEnergy to resume naphtha deliveries, although Train 2 repairs remain due in early 2027.
Ukraine Strikes Russia’s Largest Refinery.Ukraine’s military stated that itsdroneshit Gazprom Neft’s 440,000 b/d Omsk refinery, the largest downstream plant in Russia located some 2,500 km from the Ukrainian border, marking the 4thattack on Russian refineries this month amidst escalating tensions.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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