Why Record Crude Output Can’t Solve America’s Diesel Crisis
Russia, Germany Add Diesel Supply as Fuel Market Scrambles for Barrels Robert Rapier is a chemical engineer in the energy industry.
He has 25 years of international engineering experience in the chemical, oil and gas, and… The United States is producing more crudeoilthan ever.
According to theEnergyInformation Administration, U.S.
crude production is on track to average a record13.8 million barrels per dayin 2026, surpassing the previous record set last year.
Yet diesel prices recently climbed to record highs, while distillate inventories remain unusually low.The EIA expectsthose inventories to stay below the five-year range through much of 2027, with stocks falling below 100 million barrels for the first time in more than two decades.
At first glance, that seems contradictory.
If the United States has more oil than ever, why can’t refiners simply make more diesel? The answer is that crude oil and diesel are not interchangeable commodities.
Oil has to pass through a refinery before it becomes diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, heating oil, or one of the many other petroleum products consumers actually use.
A record amount of crude oil can be produced while refined-product markets remain tight, because the bottleneck may occur after the oil comes out of the ground.
One of the most persistent misconceptions about petroleum markets is the assumption that refiners can decide how much gasoline or diesel they want to make and simply adjust production accordingly.
They do have a small degree of flexibility, but it is limited by chemistry, crude quality, refinery configuration, and the equipment installed at each facility.
A typical 42-gallon barrel of crude processed in a U.S.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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