Iran War and AI Boom Drive Global Gas Supply Crunch
Oil Crashes 9% as Trump and Vance Blame Iran War for Midterm Rout Middle Eastern petrochemical producers retain… What I Cover Irina Slav has been writing about global energy markets since 2007, covering the oil and gas industry, energy security, commodities, and the… LNG spot market prices in Asia have tripled since the start of the year.
Asia and Europe are locked in a race for a limited number of cargoes.
And QatarEnergy just extended a force majeure on its own LNG exports.
The world is short on gas—and will remain so for a while.
The Japan-Korea Marker, the Asian LNG benchmark, topped $31 per million British thermal units this month.
In fact, the benchmark briefly rose above $33 per mmBtu, compared with a little over $9 per mmBtu in January this year.
The price change speaks volumes about the impact of the war in the Persian Gulf on global gas supply security, as it took one of the top three liquefied gas exporters off the market.
Replacing Qatar has proven difficult, even for the United States, which hasboostedits LNG exports substantially, thanks mostly to strong demand from Europe, which has few alternatives to Qatari LNG, unlike Asia, which has the alternative of coal and is taking advantage of it.
Still, gas supply is tight and will remain tight next year as well, the International Energy Agencywarnedthis week.
The war between the United States and Israel, and Iran, cost the world some 60 billion cu m in LNG supply losses in the eight months to October, the IEA has estimated.
Higher production in the United States and Africa helped fill much of that gap—as much as two-thirds.
Alas, two-thirds is not 100%, so a gap remains, and the IEA expects global LNG production to decline by 3% this year, with the March-October period seeing a 6% drop.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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