Iran War Doubles Egypt’s LNG Bill as Gas Output Keeps Falling
US Crude Oil Inventories Still in Freefall Alex Kimani is a veteran finance writer, investor, engineer and researcher for Safehaven.com.
The war on Iran hasdoubledwhat Egypt pays for imported LNG, and Cairo is deferring cargoes into 2027 andburning fuel oilin its power plants to hold down the bill.
Egypt’s own outputfell to 3.63 bcf/din August as older fields declined faster than new wells came online, and the petroleum ministry has nowextended the deadlinefor bids on 14 exploration blocks meant to reverse that decline to December 14 after companies asked for more time.QatarEnergy has kept its LNG deliveries under force majeure since April, and on October 28 itextended thatto the end of December.
A government officialtold Asharq Bloombergthat the price of a single LNG cargo has risen as much as 100% since September, to more than $100 million.
Cairo has asked suppliers to push five of its 15 November LNG cargoes into 2027, on top of about 15 cargoes it had already deferred since July.
The Petroleum Ministry budgeted $10.1 billion for LNG imports in the fiscal year that began July 1 and had spent $5.8 billion of it by October 6.
Egypt has set aside about $1 billion for November cargoes.
To cut the bill, EGPC bought six cargoes of high-sulfur fuel oil for delivery in November and December.
Egypt’s fuel oil imports have trended higher since April and exceeded 640,000 tons in October.
Egyptian gas output has fallen steadily since late 2021.
It averaged4.87 bcf/d in 2024, then an eight-year low, and about 4 bcf/d in the second half of 2025.
In July, Egypt imported more gas than it produced for the first time on record.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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