Polar Vortex Puts Europe's Gas Reserves at Risk
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The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows signs of an early disruption of the Arctic polar vortex that could send cold air into Northwest Europe as the energy-stricken continent faces avery thin supply bufferbefore the Northern Hemisphere winter gathers pace.
The Polar Vortex is currently the weakest it’s ever been for the date and is headed for the crucial 0 line over the next day or so.
If it gets to a value of 0 or lower, it will officially be the earliest Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event on record.
Regardless of the technical details, the current forecasts show the Polar Vortex remaining record breakingly weak for an extended period of time… in fact, it is not exactly clear when or how much the Polar Vortex will recover… this is a critical detail when it comes to pinpointing the impacts from this.
What I can say is that the longer this goes on and remains weak, the higher the odds for a snowy winter.
Remember, this disruption is about to begin in the stratosphere but we won’t see the effects make it to our part of the world for 1-4 weeks.
This means we will likely see a dramatic change in the weather pattern as we move from November into December.
I’ll have more details on this and many other factors in my Winter Forecast that will be coming out soon! #winteriscoming One week ago, we reported that signs of a potentiallyrecord-early sudden stratospheric warmingwere developing and that a split in the vortex could send Arctic air into the northern US and/or parts of Europe within weeks.
An absolutely textbook heat flux punch upwards from the troposphere into the stratosphere triggering a collapse of the stratospheric vortex and a reversal of westerlies to easterlies, a major and likely record early major sudden stratospheric warming ???????? https://t.co/Xtohsr6SmN BloombergNEF reports that one week of Arctic air could send heating demand soaring in Europe and wipe out any natural gas storage gains made during October's mild weather.
If temperatures average 5C below the 10-year normal in the first week of December, heating demand across Northwest Europe, Italy, Spain and Austria would soar by about 1.1 billion cubic meters.
A week of materially colder weather could quickly erode Europe's already thin gas storage buffer.
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