TotalEnergies Now Sees Oil Demand Peaking Between 2035 and 2040
and Iran Signal Room for Diplomacy A year after forecasting that oil demand would keep rising until 2040, TotalEnergies has moved its peak forward to between 2035 and 2040, and says the Iran war could accelerate the energy transition.
The company’s annual energy outlook, released on Monday, projects demand for petroleum products plateauing through the 2030s before a slow decline.
Chief sustainability officer Aurélien Hamelletold reportersthat demand could fall faster if EV sales keep growing.
In November 2025, TotalEnergiesforecastoil demand rising nearly 5% to 108 million barrels per day by 2040 under current trends, before easing to 98 million bpd by 2050.
green subsidies, new LNG approvals, new coal plants in Asia and slower EV sales.
CEO Patrick Pouyanné said at the time that the chances of the Paris-aligned scenario were “diminishing, even out of reach.” A year earlier, the company hadexpected demand to peak after 2030.
The 2026 report says the energy crisis set off by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran could act as an “accelerator” of the transition.
It points to a sharp rise in EV sales in Asia, Latin America and Europe, and to higher biofuel blending mandates.
Hamelle described a “stunning acceleration” of low-carbon technology between the second quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026.
The International Energy Agency (IEA)projectsabout 23 million EV sales in 2026, close to 30% of new cars worldwide.
In the first quarter, EV sales rose roughly 30% in Europe, 80% in Asia-Pacific outside China and 75% in Latin America.
Gasoline-only carsfell below halfof global new car sales for the first time in the first half of the year, at 49%.
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.14/bbl | +0.34% |
| WTI Crude | $96.90/bbl | +0.21% |
| EN590 Diesel | $846/MT | +0.18% |
| Jet Fuel A-1 | $1090/MT | +0.55% |
| Mazut M100 | $450/MT | -0.15% |
| Bitumen 60/70 | $470/MT | +0.08% |
| Sulphur Gran 99.5% | $470/MT | -0.44% |
| Urea 46% Gran | $650/MT | +1.12% |
| NPK 16-16-16 | $460/MT | -0.28% |
| Nat Gas TTF | $15.42/MMBtu | +0.92% |
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